Is it possible for Donald Trump to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize?

Is it possible for Donald Trump to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize?

Speculation about Donald Trump’s chances of being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize has gained new momentum in 2025. After his return to the White House in January, several nominations have come in, and betting companies are giving him surprisingly high odds. According to Oddspedia, Trump’s chances of winning the 2025 Peace Prize have dramatically increased from 13.3% to 27.8%, making him the favorite ahead of climate activist Greta Thunberg (20%) and WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange (12.5%).

Ever since Obama was awarded the Nobel Prize, Trump has expressed a desire to receive the prestigious accolade. Previous US presidents who have won the Nobel Peace Prize include Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, and Jimmy Carter. The Trump organization and various lobby groups have been actively campaigning for his nomination, raising the question: what happens when the world’s most powerful narcissist politicizes and seeks a prize he may not truly deserve?

Who are the candidates?

According to betting companies, Trump leads with his 27.8% chance, followed by:

• Greta Thunberg (20%)
• Julian Assange (12.5%)
• David Attenborough (10%)
• International Court of Justice (7.7%)

There are a total of 338 nominated candidates for the 2025 prize – 244 individuals and 94 organizations. Among them:

• International Court of Justice (ICJ) and International Criminal Court (ICC). Both institutions have been nominated for their contributions to upholding international law and accountability, particularly in addressing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine.
• Jeff Halper and Issa Amro: Israeli anthropologist Jeff Halper and Palestinian activist Issa Amro have been jointly nominated by Norwegian MP Ingrid Fiskaa. Their nomination recognizes their nonviolent efforts to challenge Israeli occupation and promote human rights in the West Bank.
• Daniella Weiss Israeli activist Daniella Weiss has been nominated by Professors Amos Azaria and Shalom Sadik for her decades-long work in establishing Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria, which they argue has contributed to regional stability.
• Zuriel Oduwole American education advocate and filmmaker Zuriel Oduwole has been nominated by two U.S. institutions and a senator. Her nomination highlights her initiatives in promoting education across Africa and the Caribbean, as well as her diplomatic efforts in various regions.
• Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani The Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar has been nominated for his instrumental role in mediating a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in early 2025.
• Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom (WILPF). Nominated in recognition of their long-standing advocacy for women’s roles in peacebuilding, especially on the 25th anniversary of UN Security Council Resolution 1325.

What does a nomination mean?

A nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize simply means someone has proposed a candidate – it does not guarantee a win. Qualified nominators include government members, heads of state, and university professors. This means that in theory, anyone could be nominated by figures like Putin or Kim Jong-Un. Looking back at history, even someone like Hitler could have nominated Stalin. Therefore, the act of receiving a nomination does not hold significant weight in itself.

Trump’s 2025 Nominations:

Benjamin Netanyahu personally presented a nomination letter to Trump during a White House dinner on July 7, praising Trump as a ”peacemaker” who is ”forging peace as we speak, in one country and one region after the other.”

Pakistan officially nominated Trump in June for his ”decisive diplomatic intervention” during a violent conflict with India in May 2025. Pakistan’s government called Trump a ”genuine peacemaker” with ”great strategic foresight and stellar statesmanship.”

Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandr Merezhko initially nominated Trump but then withdrew his nomination in June, after having ”lost any sort of faith and belief” in Trump’s ability to secure a ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv.

Previous Nominations:

Norwegian right-wing populist Christian Tybring-Gjedde had previously nominated Trump based on his meetings with Kim Jong-Un and the Abraham Accords between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain. However, Norwegian newspaper VG portrayed these as largely symbolic agreements that established diplomatic relations rather than stopping actual wars.

Swedish politician Magnus Jacobsson also nominated Trump, expressing desire to recognize efforts made by the US, Kosovo, and Serbia – though this ”breakthrough” involved a conflict that had been dormant for over two decades.

Controversial ”Achievements”

Israel and Iran (2025)

Trump takes credit for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which Netanyahu described as a ”great result.” This followed joint US-Israeli bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities. Critics argue these military actions undermine the spirit of the peace prize. Trump’s joint military operations with Israel against Iran, including bombing nuclear facilities, directly contradict the peace-making narrative. These aggressive military actions escalate tensions rather than resolve them.

The West Bank Humanitarian Crisis
Trump’s policies and support for Israel have arguably enabled this humanitarian catastrophe in the west bank rather than preventing it.

India and Pakistan (2025)

Trump claims he prevented a nuclear war between India and Pakistan in May 2025. Pakistan acknowledges the US role, but India downplays Trump’s significance and insists it was a bilateral agreement. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made it clear to United States President Donald Trump that a ceasefire between India and Pakistan after a four-day conflict in May was achieved through talks between the two militaries and not US mediation. India has consistently rejected the narrative that the US mediated the ceasefire, insisting it was a bilateral military agreement. This undermines Trump’s claim to this ”achievement.”

Ukraine War

Despite promises to end the war ”within 24 hours,” Trump has failed to secure peace between Ukraine and Russia after six months in power. His friendly stance toward Putin continues to raise concerns about the implications for the conflict that began with Russia’s 2014 intervention and annexation of Crimea.
Despite Trump’s campaign promise to end the war ”within 24 hours,” the conflict continues unabated after six months of his presidency. His friendly relationship with Putin has yielded no tangible peace results.

Serbia and Kosovo

Trump continues to claim breakthroughs between Serbia and Kosovo, despite the conflict having been largely dormant since 1999. The 2020 economic agreement was portrayed as a major peace deal, though it primarily focused on economic normalization. Trump’s surprise announcement that both countries would move embassies to Jerusalem generated negative reactions and potentially undermined their EU membership prospects. The conflict between Serbia and Kosovo occurred primarily during 1998-1999, over 20 years before Trump’s involvement. There has been no active war or ongoing casualties between these countries for decades.
This is a clear example of Trump claiming credit for ”peace” where there was no war to stop.

Afghanistan

During Trump’s first term, 5,000 Taliban prisoners were released, and Taliban leaders were controversially invited to Camp David on the anniversary of 9/11. These decisions raised serious concerns about regional security and stability. Trump’s Afghanistan policy represents one of his greatest failures. Afghanistan has now returned to Taliban rule, erasing 20 years of progress on human rights, especially for women and girls The chaotic situation has created a humanitarian disaster with millions suffering under Taliban oppression

North Korea

Trump’s unusual friendship with Kim Jong-Un, including high-profile summits and exchanges of flattering letters, drew criticism for legitimizing an oppressive regime without addressing human rights violations.

Media Manipulation and Organized Campaigns

The Murdoch media empire continues to push the narrative of Trump as peacemaker. Fox News, The Sun, and other Murdoch-owned outlets emphasize that Trump is ”stopping wars” and deserves the prize. Google Trends shows extreme spikes for searches about ”Trump Nobel Peace Prize 2025,” suggesting an organized campaign.

These outlets present economic deals as peace agreements and highlight arms purchases from the US by allies like Netanyahu’s Israel and Mohammed bin Salman’s Saudi Arabia. The narrative has gained traction beyond Murdoch’s empire, indicating the campaign’s broader influence.

On social media, particularly Truth Social, Trump himself complains: ”I won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize no matter what I do.”

Contradictory to Nobel’s Vision: Why Awarding the Nobel Prize to Trump Goes Against the Criteria

The criteria for winning the Nobel Peace Prize are clarified in Alfred Nobel’s testament, which states that the prize should be awarded to those who have served the most or best for the brotherhood of peoples, the reduction of standing armies, and the formation of peace congresses.

Nobel’s will states that the prize should go to the person who has ”done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.

Nobel’s will states that the prize should go to the person who has ”done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.”

Trump’s actions often stand in opposition to these principles:

• The US defense budget remains massive (previously $686.1 billion)
• Withdrawal from WHO and climate agreements like the Paris Treaty
• Hostile attitude toward multilateral organizations (UN, UNESCO, EU)
• Polarizing rhetoric that divides rather than unites
• Handling of movements like Black Lives Matter
• Withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement
• Withdrawing the global presence through USAID is a global disaster that cost million of lifes (according to Rice)

The Nobel Committee

The five members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee are:

• Berit Reiss-Andersen (president, background in Norwegian Labour Party)
• Henrik Syse (vice president, philosopher)
• Thorbjørn Jagland (member)
• Anne Enger (member)
• Asle Toje (member)

Two members are from the Labour Party, politically aligned with progressive politics. If Trump were to win, it would certainly trigger a debate about corruption and politicization of the prize.

Conclusion

While Trump’s chances according to betting companies have increased, the question remains whether he truly deserves the prize which should be an absurd situation. His nominations appear to be more about political opportunism and flattery than genuine peace achievements. With the withdrawal of the Ukrainian nomination, controversial military actions in the Middle East, and failure to resolve the Ukraine war, Trump’s candidacy appears highly questionable.

Awarding Trump the Nobel Peace Prize would mock the very concept of peacemaking, rewarding someone who:

• Claims credit for ending non-existent conflicts
• Presides over humanitarian disasters
• Enables authoritarian regimes (Taliban, Putin)
• Fails to deliver on peace promises despite having the world’s most powerful military at his disposal

The Nobel Committee should recognize actual peacemakers who save lives and prevent conflicts, not those who manufacture diplomatic victories while real crises worsen under their watch.

The Nobel Prize will be announced on October 10, 2025, with the ceremony held on December 10 in Oslo. It remains to be seen whether the committee will reward Trump’s self-proclaimed role as ”peacemaker” or hold firm to Alfred Nobel’s original vision of genuine peace work.

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